A recent post on the Wall Street Journal's blog points out some of the bizarre things you do if you think you have a "nearly unlimited amount of money"
On March 13, or the second-to-last day of China’s annual legislative session, the ministry gave the go-ahead for the magnetic levitation railway project that promises to cut the current one-hour journey by half when the fancy trains eventually hit the tracks.
the Railway Ministry has already embarked on a competing but much more environmentally-friendly high-speed train project, which upon targeted completion in October will reduce the twin-city journey to 40 minutes, just 10 minutes shy of its ambitious maglev counterpart. The route is also almost identical.
This month we're publishing my interview with Jing Ulrich who happily proclaims that China has a "nearly unlimited amount of money," a very common belief among the analyst community, as it seems to be backed up by published numbers, but there are a number of reasons this belief makes me antsy.
1) Creating two competing high speed train lines the faster of which costs RMB 40 billion (USD 5.86 billion) is stupid.
2) The Beijing to Tianjin high speed train is loss making.
"When constructing the Beijing-Tianjin railway, investment per kilometer reached RMB 180 million," he adds. "Currently the income of the railway can't yet cover the operation cost and interest on loans. Debt risk has become the biggest problem facing the construction of high speed railways in China."
3) The Ministry of Railways is nearing bankruptcy:
The Ministry of Railways has been spending record amounts of money, issuing debt valued at RMB 10 billion in 2009 — the largest single issuance in China that year — and RMB 8 billion in 2008, another record. But RMB 2 trillion is still needed in the next three years. "The total debt will reach RMB 2.5 trillion by 2012, which is a very big number," says Adfaith's Wang.
If Chinese travelers aren't interested enough to pay the high ticket price, the companies could enter a debt spiral. "If most passengers won't take the high speed railway because of its expensive price, then income won't make up the cost of debt," said Zhao Jian, an economics professor of Beijing Jiaotong University in an interview on CCTV in September 2009.
So yea, I think there has to at some point be an end to the conviction that the government has unlimited amounts of money. But what do I know, I have no fancy economic degrees.
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